Keep the economic sanctions on Iran and continue frustrating European allies who want America back on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, signed in 2015), or run back to the disastrous deal, kill the sanctions, and frustrate and alienate our key partners in the Middle East? This is the catch 22 that President Biden finds himself in.
Important to note is the deal was reached between a host of actors: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Germany, together with the European Union. Even as America stepped out in 2018 under the Trump administration, the deal was still on the table and the restrictions were still were suppose to be upheld by the Iranian government. However, Iran has repeatedly violated the terms of conditions, which is a long-standing trend (a reason Trump backed out in the first place). In 2002, dissident groups within the country alerted the world that Iran was working to create a nuclear weapon and had built facilities to achieve that goal, and in 2009, the Obama Administration uncovered an underground operation that was working to enrich uranium. Most recently, Iran has been working to enrich uranium at 20% purity, a level not seen in the country since 2013 according to the Wall Street Journal. This, along with their attempts to create uranium metal, which can be used in the core of a nuclear weapon, are both banned under the current deal.
It's evident that the deal needs America to rejoin for it to have any teeth. Iran has shown repeatedly that their decisions are not heavily swayed by European actors (even America's teeth in the past haven't been completely effective). The European Union has invited the Iranians to an informal meeting that would include Biden officials, and they seemed intrigued by the idea. However, they have made it clear they will not partake in serious conversations until Washington lifts the sanctions.
In contrast, Israel and other American allies in the Gulf Region know better and are lobbying Biden to keep the strict economic sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration. Israel has unearthed several secret Iranian nuclear projects over the years and knows the deal does little to stop Iranian nuclear proliferation, and will only help revive the Iranian economy.
Biden finds himself in a sticky situation. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Washington, our European allies, and our Middle East allies all win. At the end of the day, I hope Biden scraps the deal and embraces our newly improved relationship with Israel and others in the Gulf Region. Wishful thinking, right?
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